Placer County Submarket Report · August 2026

The Loomis Basin: Where the Land Sets the Price

Loomis, Newcastle and Penryn cleared 144 sales in under six months at a median of $977,500 — and half of them went pending inside two weeks. But look at what is still sitting on the market and a very different market appears above $1.5 million.

The Snapshot

Sales are running at 24.8 per month against 67 active listings — 2.7 months of supply, textbook seller's market. That single number hides almost everything that matters here.

Three Towns, Three Markets

• Penryn carries the premium — 24% above Loomis on median price, 13% on price per foot — on the back of bigger parcels and bigger homes. Seventeen sales is a thin sample; treat it as directional, not precise.
• Loomis is the liquidity center. Six in ten closings and the fastest median DOM in the basin at 12 days. It also spans $429,000 to $4.94 million, which means it is really two markets sharing one ZIP code.
• Newcastle trades at Loomis prices on 2.7 times the land. That is the single most usable sentence in this report — for buyer tours and for Newcastle listing presentations alike.

Supply Is Piled at the Top

This is the finding that should change how you work the basin this quarter.

Two consequences follow. First, the $1,598,000 active median is a mix artifact, not a price signal — do not put it in front of a seller, because it will anchor them 64% above where the market is actually clearing. Second, 36% of active listings have now passed 90 days. Four are past 180:

The two sub-$900K listings on that list are the tell. Sub-$1M product in this basin is clearing in roughly two weeks — so those are pricing or condition problems, not market problems.

Speed and Negotiation

Half of everything sold went under contract within 14 days. The tail is real, though: 16% of sales took 60 days or longer, and they are overwhelmingly $1.5M+ or compromised inventory.

On negotiation, the median lands exactly at list — but the distribution is where the coaching is. 50 sales closed above list (34.7%), 31 landed exactly at list (21.5%), and 63 closed below (43.8%). So a correctly priced home has roughly a 56% chance of meeting or beating list, while 24 sellers gave up more than 5% off asking. In this basin the penalty for overpricing is a discount, not just a delay.

What Actually Drives Price Here: Acreage

Land is the strongest single price variable in the dataset, and critically it lifts price per square foot, not just total price. Moving from a sub-half-acre lot to a 2.5–5 acre parcel adds about $138 per foot, a 34% premium on the same square footage. The 1–2.5 acre band is the velocity sweet spot at 10 days.

Vintage tells a second story

Note the U-curve in price per foot. Older, smaller homes on real acreage command a high per-foot number because the buyer is paying for the dirt. The 2000–2014 vintage is the per-foot value play at $437. Newer construction reclaims a $571 premium but takes twice as long to find its buyer.

Direction of Travel

A falling median alongside a rising per-foot number means the mix shifted toward smaller homes — it does not mean values fell. Monthly price per foot backs that up: $446 in March, $438 in April, $496 in May, $461 in June, $475 in July, and $529 in August. Underlying pricing is grinding upward while marketing times soften modestly.

The pending pipeline

Twenty-five properties are in escrow at a median list of $940,000 and a median 23 days to contract. The band mix is a barbell — seven under $750,000 and seven above $2 million, with only five between $1.5M and $2M. Pending price per foot of $516 against closed $463 suggests the next 30 to 60 days of closings print higher per-foot numbers. And the velocity gap is stark: Loomis pendings went under contract in a median of 7.5 days; Newcastle took 50.

What To Do About It

1. Prospect listings under $1M in Loomis and Newcastle.One to 1.4 months of supply, 12-day DOM, and a 56% chance of meeting or beating list. This is where a listing converts fastest.
2. Open the repricing conversation on the 24 listings past 90 days.At $1.5M+ the market is 5.8 months deep. Waiting costs more than cutting, and the data gives you the evidence to say so.
3. Position Newcastle acreage directly against Loomis.Same median price, 2.7 times the land. A concrete, defensible buyer pitch straight off the submarket table.
4. Point buyers with leverage at the $1.5M–$2M band.Nearly six months of supply and 44% of closings already landing below list. This is the negotiating room in the basin.
5. Retire the active median from client materials.$1,598,000 asking against $977,500 closing is inventory mix. Using it will misprice sellers and cost you the listing later.

Prepared from 236 MLS records covering Loomis (95650), Newcastle (95658) and Penryn (95663), Placer County, California. Closed sales February 24 through August 20, 2026, alongside active, pending and contingent listings as of August 20, 2026. Six records carrying Rocklin (95677) addresses were excluded. Medians are used throughout except where averages are labeled; small submarket samples — Penryn in particular — should be read as directional.