Short sales, South Placer market trends, mortgage rates, ranch property and three featured homes.ALEX DYER | REAL ESTATEPLACER & SACRAMENTO COUNTIES · SEPTEMBER 24, 2026This week's market
Roseville, Rocklin & Lincoln Real Estate Market Report
Dated: September 24 2026
Views: 3
Opening Snapshot
Balanced, and quietly tilting toward buyers as fall arrives
Across Roseville, Rocklin, and Lincoln, new listings dropped sharply this week (54 vs. 89), but so did contracts (37 vs. 53), and active inventory still crept up to 604 homes, the highest level since this data series began in June (up from 438 at the end of June).
For buyers: you have more to choose from and less competition than at any point this year, especially in Rocklin and Lincoln.
For sellers: the homes getting multiple offers are the ones priced sharply in the first week. Everything else is sitting 5–10 weeks and negotiating.
As someone who is in the field every day across all three cities, I track these numbers weekly so my clients never have to guess.
Three Cities at a Glance
Where each market stands this week
Tightest market · steady
- Median sale
- $665,000
- Median DOM
- 23 days
- At/over list
- 59%
- Actives
- 196 (flat)
- Supply
- 2.3 mo.
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Rocklin
Softest week · inventory up
- Median sale
- $720,000
- Median DOM
- 69 days
- At/over list
- 33%
- Actives
- 152 (+7%)
- Supply
- 2.9 mo.
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Lincoln
Fastest moving · value play
- Median sale
- $611,000
- Median DOM
- 19 days
- At/over list
- 56%
- Actives
- 256 (+2%)
- Supply
- 2.9 mo.
By the Numbers
Regional summary
| Metric | This Week 9/17 – 9/23 | Last Week 9/10 – 9/16 | Change | What It Means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings | 54 | 89 | â–¼ 35 (−39%) | The post-Labor Day listing surge is over; fall seasonality has arrived. |
| Homes Sold (Closed) | 35 | 57 | â–¼ 22 | Partly a reporting lag on the most recent days; expect this number to firm up. |
| Homes Gone Pending | 37 | 53 | â–¼ 16 (−30%) | Buyer activity slowed with the calendar. Fewer offers being written region-wide. |
| Median Sale Price | $665,000 | $735,000 | â–¼ 9.5% | Mix-driven: Lincoln and entry-level resale made up more of this week's closings. Not a price crash. |
| Median Days on Market | 23 | 31 | â–¼ 8 days | The homes that closed this week were the ones priced right from day one. |
| List-to-Sale Ratio | 99.4% | 99.0% | â–² 0.4 pts | Well-priced homes are still holding value; 51% closed at or above list. |
| Inventory (Active + Contingent) | 604 | 587 | â–² 17 (+3%) | Inventory is building even as new listings slow, because absorption slowed faster. |
| Months of Supply | ~2.6 | ~2.5 | â–² 0.1 | Still under the 4-month balanced line, but the loosest reading of 2026. |
Source: MLS export of 2,340 listings across Roseville (852), Rocklin (561), and Lincoln (927), pulled September 23, 2026. Months of supply = current inventory ÷ trailing 90-day average monthly closings. Change colors reflect what the move means for sellers: sage favorable, rust unfavorable.
City by City
Side-by-side breakdown
| Metric (This Week) | Roseville | Rocklin | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings | 15 last wk 27 | 15 last wk 25 | 24 last wk 37 |
| Closed | 17 last wk 16 | 9 last wk 15 | 9 last wk 26 |
| Gone Pending | 14 last wk 15 | 5 last wk 17 | 18 last wk 21 |
| Median Sale Price | $665,000 from $734,500 | $720,000 from $780,000 | $611,000 from $641,900 |
| Median Price / Sq Ft | $325 | $329 | $382 |
| Median DOM (closed) | 23 flat | 69 from 26 | 19 from 40 |
| List-to-Sale Ratio | 99.8% | 98.3% | 99.9% |
| Sold At/Over List | 59% | 33% | 56% |
| Active Inventory | 196 flat | 152 â–² 7% | 256 â–² 2% |
| Months of Supply | ~2.3 | ~2.9 | ~2.9 |
| New-Construction Share of Actives | 25% | 10% | 16% |
Roseville: steady, and still the tightest market in the region
Roseville is the anchor. Inventory held flat at 196, months of supply is the lowest in the region at about 2.3, and 59% of this week's closings landed at or above list. Median DOM held at 23 days. The median price dip to $665K is mix: this week included several 1990s-era homes in the $600Ks in 95661 and 95678 (Sierra Gardens, Wisteria Ct, Jo Anne Ln) that all sold over asking in under 30 days. Well-presented entry-level resale in established Roseville neighborhoods is the hottest product in South Placer right now. Builders still hold a quarter of active inventory in West Roseville, which caps how far resale prices can push.
rocklin">
Rocklin: the week's soft spot (small sample, but a real signal)
Rocklin had the weakest week of the three: only 5 homes went pending (down from 17), only a third of closings hit list price, and the homes that did close had sat a median of 69 days. Active inventory rose 7% to 152. Two data points cut both ways. 4804 Tenbury Ct closed at $1,240,000, $15K over asking, proving move-up buyers will still pay for the right turn-key home in 95677. Meanwhile 3005 Crestwood Way and 3403 Rockford Ct each took 130-plus days and closed at or below list. Caution: 9 closings and 5 pendings is a thin sample. But the direction (rising inventory, fewer contracts, longer DOM) has been building since August, when Rocklin's median DOM jumped to 31 from 17 in July.
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Lincoln: fastest-moving market this week, at the lowest price point
Lincoln flipped the script: median DOM dropped to 19 days (from 40), the list-to-sale ratio hit 99.9%, and 1536 Green Ravine Dr closed $20K over asking in 7 days. Lincoln also had the most new listings (24) and pendings (18) of any city. At a $611K median and $382 per square foot, it is the value play, and buyers priced out of Rocklin are clearly landing here. The caveat is inventory: 256 actives and about 2.9 months of supply is the most cushion in the region, and 16% of actives are new construction competing directly with resale in the $500K–$650K band.
For Buyers
More to choose from than at any point this year
- The region has more inventory than at any point this year. 604 active homes, up 3% week over week even as new listings fell 39%. You have time to be selective, but the well-priced homes still go in under 10 days, so be pre-approved and ready.
- Rocklin is where your leverage is strongest right now. Only 33% of closings hit list, median DOM is 69 days, and inventory is building. Target homes past 45 days on market and negotiate credits, not just price.
- Lincoln is the value play, but don't expect discounts. At a $611K median and a 99.9% list-to-sale ratio, Lincoln homes are priced to move and are moving. Come in strong on anything under $650K that shows well.
- In Roseville, established neighborhoods beat new construction on speed. Four of this week's Roseville closings were sub-$700K 1960s–90s resales in 95661/95678, and all four sold over asking in under 30 days. If you want a bargain, look at 2020-plus builds in 95747 sitting 60-plus days (Oxbow Landing, Rain Shadow) instead.
- Watch the price-per-square-foot gap. Roseville and Rocklin are both around $325–$329 per sq ft; Lincoln is $382 because of smaller homes. Bigger house for the money is in Rocklin's older neighborhoods right now.
If you're weighing Roseville vs. Rocklin vs. Lincoln, I'll run a free buyer consultation and a side-by-side market analysis for the price band you're shopping. No pressure, just the real numbers.
For Sellers
Your first 14 days decide everything
- Price to the market on day one. Across all three cities, homes closing at or over list this week had a median DOM of 11 days. Homes closing under list had a median DOM of 36. There is no "test the market" premium left.
- Roseville sellers: you're in the best position in the region. Flat inventory, 2.3 months of supply, 59% at or over list. Price sharply and you should see offers inside two weeks.
- Rocklin sellers: get ahead of the trend. Inventory is up 7% and contracts slowed hard this week. If you're listing this fall, price 1–2% below where you would have in July and lead with condition. 4804 Tenbury Ct proved turn-key still gets paid.
- Lincoln sellers: competition is on the way. 24 new listings this week was the most in the region, and builders hold 16% of actives. The window to list before your neighbors is now.
- Stale is expensive. Region-wide since late June, homes that closed after 100-plus days on market averaged 98.2% of list; homes that sold in under 30 days averaged 99.8%. That gap is about $12K on a $700K home. One decisive price adjustment at day 21 beats three small ones at days 45, 60, and 90.
Want to know what your home would sell for in today's South Placer market, not last spring's? I'll prepare a free, no-obligation home valuation and seller strategy session specific to your city and neighborhood.
Neighborhood Spotlight
Entry-level resale in East Roseville (95661 / 95678)
The quiet winner this week was 1990s-era resale east of I-80. 903 Graf Ct (1994, 2,131 sq ft) closed at $875,000, $25K over asking, in 4 days. 1607 Sierra Gardens Dr (1960, 1,326 sq ft) went $31K over. 806 Jo Anne Ln, 209 Wisteria Ct, and 1873 Nighthawk Cir all cleared asking in 9–27 days.
Takeaway: buyers are paying a premium for established neighborhoods, mature trees, and no builder competition, the exact opposite of what's happening in new-construction-heavy pockets of West Roseville and Lincoln. If you own in East Roseville and have been waiting, this is a strong window.
Looking Ahead
What to watch into October
New listings will keep tapering through October, which should slow the inventory build, but only if contracts recover from this week's 37. Watch Rocklin closely: if pendings stay in the single digits for a second week, expect price adjustments to spread. Region-wide, the numbers to track are months of supply (2.6 and drifting up) and the at-or-over-list share (51%). If that share drops below 45%, sellers have lost the pricing edge for the season.
From Alex
In the market every week, in all three cities
I'm actively listing, showing, and closing homes across Roseville, Rocklin, and Lincoln every week, and I track these numbers city by city so my clients always know exactly where they stand. Whether you're thinking about buying or selling, I'm here to give you the real numbers and a clear plan. Reach out anytime for a private consultation.
Alex Dyeralex@alexdyer.com
Alex Dyer
If you're in the market for a home, you can trust the experienced professionals at eXp Realty of California. We are dedicated to providing superior service and expertise to help you achieve your real ....
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